The Union government has declared that the upcoming national census will, for the first time since 1931, document every caste across India. This move, coming just months before the Bihar assembly elections, is widely seen as an attempt by the ruling alliance-led by JD(U) and BJP-to counter the Congress and RJD’s strong caste-based mobilisation in the state.
Background: Bihar’s Own Caste Survey and Reservation Debate
- Bihar conducted its own caste survey in 2022, revealing that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) together make up about 63% of the state’s population.
- Based on these findings, the Bihar legislature raised the reservation cap to 65% in November 2023, but this was overturned by the Patna High Court in June 2024, citing the Supreme Court’s 50% ceiling.
- OBCs currently have 27% of the 50% reservation quota under national affirmative action rules.
Political Calculus and Local Significance
- The BJP-JD(U) alliance is presenting the caste census as a gesture of inclusion and social justice, aiming to win over backward communities.
- By initiating the census, the NDA hopes to neutralise the Opposition’s critique that the government ignores OBC and EBC interests.
- Congress and RJD, who have campaigned for a national caste census, may find their key election plank blunted by this move.
Challenges and Voter Sentiment
- Bihar’s experience with its own survey has left many backward class voters sceptical, as previous data collection did not lead to lasting policy change due to judicial intervention.
- There is concern that, unless backed by constitutional reforms or favourable court rulings, the new census may not result in increased quotas or real benefits.
- Communities are now likely to demand not just data, but concrete legislation and swift implementation of promised changes.
Broader Implications
- The census could reignite national debates about OBC quotas and the 50% reservation cap.
- It may influence future delimitation of constituencies and the structure of welfare programmes across India.
- In the short term, the move gives the ruling alliance a new narrative of inclusivity, but its impact will depend on whether it leads to real reforms.
Actionable Takeaway: Voters in Bihar should monitor not only the census process but also the government’s follow-through on legislative and policy changes. Concrete benefits-not just statistics-will be key to building trust and delivering on promises of social justice.
